What?
Maybe I make a mistake by listening to the various NFL draft opinionados prior to the draft. It seems that there are a few that set the opinion standard for each of the draft candidates, and most of the others simply follow suit. Then when something unexpected happens in the draft, the entire sports-talking-head regime seems to do an unapologetic 180 and thunders backwards down the path they just ran to this point.
Maybe an example will make my point more clearish. Brady Quinn. Prior to the draft all the talking head blah-blah said he was not a top 10 pick; he was never able to win the really big games, Charlie Weis made him look better than he really was, yadda yadda. Then on draft day, by the time Miami passes on Quinn with the 9th overall pick, Mel Kiper is just about wetting his pants that a QB-deficient team didn’t take this all-star prospect.
Huh?
And with that bit of analysis, Mel was like Sulu in Star Trek IV, when they had to rocket around the sun to get to warp 10 going the opposite direction. For the next 48 hours, every NFL draft sportscaster spoke in disbelief tones about how Brady Quinn could have fallen so far in the draft.
Huh? Did your ears get plugged with shit while your heads were up your butts? Did you not collectively discuss just one or two sunrises before the draft how Quinn was not a top 10 pick? Or is Mel Kiper the NFL’s Obi-Wan, sending out mind control waves to other draft prognosticators so he’ll look like the master; “…this isn’t the prospect the first 21 picks are looking for…”
Made them look like morons. Which is a nice segue to the Packer’s 2007 NFL draft.
Do you use the draft to fill your needs, or do you use the BPA thought process? I struggle with this question like I struggle with the hypothetical one we all used to play as kids - which would you rather have: diarrhea or constipation?
Either way, you’ve got shit to deal with.
No matter who you choose in the first round, that player and more importantly his agent are going to expect first round money. So if you fill a need with a player you could have nabbed in the third round it’s going to cost you about the same money as the BPA, but now you have a less talented player for your money. So choosing the best player available is like spending dollars to buy gold; you can still cash it in later, and hopefully the price has gone up when you do.
That being said, I’m not sure you select a kid who barely played the season before the draft. When I hire people I don’t like to do it on potential. I like to do it on empirical evidence of past success. If you read the history and stats on Justin Harrell, you’ll see that he appears to have ankles that were built from elbow macaroni, seeming to break one of ‘em every year for the last several years. In only one season in college did he start all 11 games. The bigs ask him to play 4 preseason games and 16+ games that count. That’s a lot to ask of macaroni.
The reaction from the live remote in the Lambeau Field Atrium was all I needed to see to confirm my fears. It was as if Roger Goodell had said “With The 16th Pick, The Green Bay Packers Select Asphinctersayswhat.”
The problem with taking the best player available is if everyone ahead of you has a similar need and the best player available when they pick is a running back, you’re stuck with 4 kickers, a long snapper and two centers.
But Ted Thompson did try to address the team’s lack of backs, picking two, and also grabbing a couple wideouts. I like Vernand Morency, and we may get a chance to see if he can carry the load for the Packers this year, because I don’t think the Packers have the kinds of frank and beans required to pull off big deals like bringing Larry Johnson to Green Bay. And I don’t think a newly minted running back is going to be able to handle the bigs coming straight out of college.
Mel Kiper gave the Packers a C+. Let’s hope Mel’s the moron.
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