I noticed the 2009 matchups have been assembled by the NFL and published.  They don’t have dates assigned to the games yet but they have determined home and away games for all teams across the NFL. I took a brief look, and I’m pretty sure the NFC North is screwed.

The way I understand it, in a sixteen-game schedule, you’ll have home/away divisional opponents taking up half the games.  Of the remaining eight games, four would go to intraconference play (NFC) and four to extraconference play (AFC).  Given that there are 16 teams in each conference, you would think that the odds that each of the teams in the NFC North would play both representatives in the Superbowl would be remote.

Let’s see.  Odds of the Packers playing the Cardinals in 2009?  12 non-North teams to choose as opponents for four games.  That’s a 33% chance.  Odds that the Vikings and Packers would both have to play the Cards?  That’s just under an 11% chance.

Odds that all four NFC North teams will play against that same Arizona Cardinals?  One percent.

But we’re just getting started.  The Packers also have 4 extraconference games, divided among sixteen possible opponents.  Odds they’d get the Steelers?  25%.  I’ll just do the rest of the math here to save time – odds that every mother-luvin’ NFC North team had to play the Steelers?  Four tenths of a percent.

Odds that every NFC North team would have to play BOTH representatives from the previous year’s Superbowl?   Five thousandths of a percent chance.  Astrocomical, really.

And that also sums up the chances that any NFC North team is going to escape the 2009 season with more than nine wins.  Though the Pack did score games against the twin dormats from America’s armpit.  So, there’s that.

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